I wished to convey Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH, fka HHC) ($4.1B market cap) again up entrance as they simply had their investor day this previous Monday the place they laid out a $118/share NAV and its been 3.5 months since Pershing Sq. filed their 13D with out a lot of an replace. I consider it’s possible that Ackman takes it non-public at someplace between $95-$105/share.
Beneath are administration’s NAV slides:
Word using the phrase “conservative sum of the components” within the second bullet. I am certain attorneys took an in depth have a look at this deck earlier than it was printed and the corporate might want to justify a reduction to this quantity in a personal sale transaction (which they’ll and can, not suggesting it’s going to go for $118).
The majority of the NAV is within the land, which is slightly squishy and unlikely to be valued correctly by public market buyers, it isn’t typically that land banks commerce at NAV. Nonetheless, because the under slide reveals, most of their land worth is situated in Summerlin outdoors of Las Vegas, the place land gross sales to homebuilders have been robust for a while and the MPC lengthy reached essential mass.
The nascent MPC of Floreo in Arizona, the place the land worth is least stress examined, is just 7% of the MPC NAV. Moreover, mortgage charges stay stubbornly excessive regardless of the Fed beginning to ease quick time period rates of interest, it does not look like we’ll get a fast snap again to the place current residence stock jumps again to regular ranges within the close to time period. Leaving the one sport on the town new stock.
Howard Hughes has noticeably pulled again on growth in final 12 months or two because of close to zero workplace demand and elevated building prices, however there’s been minimal change to the asset worth of their business land actual property, that does not fairly add up. Moreover, they’ve solely simply began their first workplace constructing in Bridgeland, business properties are years (decade?) off in Teravalis/Floreo, it is arduous to sq. that math in my head even with wholesome low cost charges.
In addition they bumped up their Hawaii (and now additionally Woodlands) rental worth per sq. foot up considerably as they’ve not too long ago introduced the final two buildings (situated close to the seashore, would exchange a part of the land occupied by their gross sales middle on the IBM constructing) as extremely luxurious. Only a few years in the past, this worth per sq. foot would appear unattainable, excessive rise growth is a dangerous endeavor, preserving the low cost fee fixed whereas bumping up the worth 60% does not instantly scream “conservative sum-of-the-parts” valuation to me. However they’ve accomplished terribly effectively in Ward Village, breezed by way of a number of potential financial headwinds since growth there began over 10 years in the past.
For the working property, they do look like on the conservative aspect.
Their workplace property are primarily situated in rising fascinating areas with out a number of the complications of huge gateway markets and their occupancy ranges present that at 88%. The lagger of their portfolio is Hughes Touchdown within the Woodlands, they’re shifting their headquarters as soon as once more, this time simply contained in the MPC from the City Heart to Hughes Touchdown in an effort to give attention to it (there’s additionally a luxurious multi-family asset being constructed there) and unencumber the premium house they beforehand occupied within the OXY buildings.
So net-net, working properties are most likely slightly undervalued, the business land and condos barely overvalued given the timing of these money flows and dangers concerned in growth. We all know that Ackman cannot pay $118/share, he is a fiduciary to his personal buyers who can be backing the deal, someplace between $95-$105 appears proper to me (no arduous math, only a guess). He owns 37.5% of the corporate, whereas there’s possible a course of ongoing to determine different bidders, its arduous to think about one other bidder keen to pay extra (in any other case they’d have again in 2018-2019 when then HHC ran an identical strategic alternate options course of, presumably with out Ackman has a bidder since he did not replace his 13D on the time).
Ackman has an attachment to Howard Hughes (he is basically the corporate’s founder and has added to his possession stake alongside the best way, throughout Covid and thru a 2022 tender supply extra not too long ago) that I believe the market is underestimating, his Forbes cowl is usually mocked, however the byline to the 2015 article is about how he’ll flip Howard Hughes (not Pershing Sq.) into his model of Berkshire Hathaway. He is been an outspoken supporter of President-Elect Donald Trump and Republicans within the 2024 election, with the pink sweep he is possible assured within the financial local weather going ahead, probably bulled up on animal spirits eager to safe an enormous win.
In his fund’s quarterly replace name yesterday, he stated, “..we do not suppose that Howard Hughes goes to develop an actual franchise right this moment as a public firm.” He is actually the one one who can change that along with his possession degree and the construction of HHH, he’ll take it non-public inside 1-2 months and do effectively with it.
Disclosure: I personal shares of HHH and a few calls on HHH