Can inventory buyers profit from company bond market information? Sure. In truth, fairness portfolios constructed utilizing bond momentum indicators might outperform their conventional fairness worth momentum counterparts.
However as our examine demonstrates, the sign design is important.
Momentum Spillover
The momentum spillover impact describes the sign that an organization’s bond momentum sends about its future inventory returns and is attributed to info asymmetry within the monetary markets.
There are a number of the reason why bond market information may need distinctive insights for fairness buyers:
- Institutional buyers with superior experience and entry to extra and higher information dominate the bond markets relative to their fairness counterparts. This will likely give the bond markets an informational benefit.
- Since bonds have extra predictable future money flows, their costs might higher replicate their basic worth.
- Low liquidity and excessive transaction prices might insulate bond markets from hypothesis and short-term volatility.
Bond Momentum Design
Harvesting the momentum spillover premium requires an appropriately designed bond momentum sign. Not like inventory momentum, bond momentum has no single definition. In line with the educational literature, bond momentum indicators take three types:
- Whole Return Bond Momentum displays the aggregated trailing whole return of all of an organization’s excellent bonds.
- Extra Return Bond Momentum describes the distinction between the bond whole return and length matched risk-free bond whole return.
- Unfold Change Bond Momentum is the unfavourable worth of the unfold change.
In “Momentum in Company Bond Returns,” Gergana Jostova et al., study Whole Return Bond Momentum and establish a powerful momentum impact in non-investment-grade bonds. However rating shares based mostly on bond whole return, or rate of interest and unfold return, could also be ill-advised for the reason that former is a scientific issue pushed by sovereign rate of interest dynamics. Consequently, the rate of interest publicity of an organization’s debt can considerably affect Whole Return Bond Momentum. That’s the reason we focus right here on Unfold Change Bond Momentum and Extra Return Bond Momentum.
Making use of Bond Momentum to an Fairness Portfolio
Our bond dataset is predicated on the Russell 1000 inventory universe and begins in 2003, shortly after the launch of the Commerce Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) fixed-income database. We mapped company bond securities to their shares utilizing a typical firm ID. As of December 2022, about 60% of Russell 1000 companies representing 86% of the index’s whole market cap have bond information protection.
We computed market-value-weighted extra bond returns and unfold adjustments for all debt-issuing firms with a trailing three-month lookback window and constructed factor-mimicking portfolios by sorting shares into quintiles (Q1 to Q5) based mostly on their bond momentum scores. The primary chart presents the efficiency abstract of equally weighted and market-cap weighted Q1 to Q5 issue portfolios, together with a Carhart momentum issue portfolio for comparability functions .
Each bond momentum indicators outperformed conventional fairness momentum on an equal- and market-cap-weighted foundation and had larger info ratios. Moreover, Unfold Change Bond Momentum eclipsed Extra Return Bond Momentum with larger Q1 annualized returns and Q1 to Q5 return spreads.
Hypothetical Bond Momentum Portfolio Efficiency Abstract
(Russell 1000, 2003 to 2022)
| Portfolio | Extra Return Bond Momentum | Unfold Change Bond Momentum | Fairness Momentum | ||||||
| Annualized Return | Extra Return | Data Ratio | Annualized Return | Extra Return | Data Ratio | Annualized Return | Extra Return | Data Ratio | |
| Equally Weighted Portfolio | |||||||||
| Q1 | 12.2% | 1.9% | 0.34 | 12.9% | 2.7% | 0.41 | 11.5% | 1.3% | 0.24 |
| Q2 | 12.5% | 2.3% | 0.44 | 12.6% | 2.4% | 0.47 | 11.3% | 1.1% | 0.28 |
| Q3 | 12.6% | 2.4% | 0.47 | 12.1% | 1.9% | 0.40 | 12.0% | 1.7% | 0.36 |
| This fall | 11.3% | 1.1% | 0.25 | 11.1% | 0.9% | 0.23 | 11.4% | 1.2% | 0.25 |
| Q5 | 11.1% | 0.9% | 0.20 | 10.9% | 0.7% | 0.19 | 12.9% | 2.7% | 0.29 |
| Q1–Q5 | 1.1% | – | – | 2.0% | – | – | –1.4% | – | – |
| Market Cap Weighted Portfolio | |||||||||
| Q1 | 10.0% | –0.2% | 0.04 | 10.5% | 0.3% | 0.10 | 9.3% | -0.9% | -0.11 |
| Q2 | 10.9% | 0.7% | 0.17 | 11.4% | 1.2% | 0.29 | 11.3% | 1.1% | 0.26 |
| Q3 | 10.6% | 0.4% | 0.11 | 10.7% | 0.5% | 0.11 | 10.7% | 0.5% | 0.14 |
| This fall | 10.1% | –0.1% | –0.02 | 9.4% | –0.8% | –0.13 | 9.3% | -0.9% | -0.12 |
| Q5 | 8.8% | –1.4% | –0.24 | 7.6% | –2.6% | –0.36 | 10.5% | 0.3% | 0.13 |
| Q1–Q5 | 1.2% | – | – | 1.9% | – | – | –1.2% | – | – |
The info contained herein doesn’t symbolize the outcomes of an precise funding portfolio however displays the hypothetical historic efficiency. Previous Efficiency is just not indicative of future outcomes.
Evaluation
That Unfold Change Bond Momentum outperforms Extra Bond Momentum isn’t any coincidence. There are some basic explanations for this final result. Utilizing fundamental bond math, we decompose bond extra return into unfold carry return and unfold worth return in Equations 1 to six beneath. Unfold carry return is a operate of unfold degree whereas unfold worth return is pushed by unfold change. Unfold change is the one part that immediately captures company-specific market sentiment.
We additionally utilized Fama–Macbeth regressions to additional consider the 2 bond momentum indicators. Particularly, we ran cross-sectional regressions every month utilizing one-month ahead inventory returns as unbiased variables and customary inventory elements plus bond momentum as dependent variables. The mannequin outputs are offered within the following desk.
Inventory Return and Bond Momentum Elements: Cross-Sectional Evaluation, 2003 to 2022
| Mannequin 1 | Mannequin 2 | Mannequin 3 | Mannequin 4 | |
| Intercept | 0.0103 (3.46) | 0.0103 (3.44) | 0.0106 (3.56) | 0.0105 (3.52) |
| Market | 0.0024 (1.49) | 0.0024 (1.47) | 0.0024 (1.45) | 0.0024 (1.46) |
| Dimension | 0.0006 (1.59) | 0.0006 (1.55) | 0.0006 (1.70) | 0.0007 (1.85) |
| Worth | –0.0004 (-0.53) | –0.0004 (-0.48) | –0.0004 (-0.49) | –0.0004 (-0.50) |
| ROE | 0.0001 (0.04) | 0.0002 (0.06) | 0.0001 (0.02) | –0.0001 (-0.02) |
| Low Vol | 0.0133 (1.55) | 0.0126 (1.49) | 0.0122 (1.46) | 0.0122 (1.45) |
| Momentum | 0.0034 (0.85) | 0.0029 (0.75) | 0.0026 (0.67) | 0.0028 (0.71) |
| Extra Return Bond Momentum | 0.0357 (1.71) | –0.0072 (-0.25) | ||
| Unfold Change Bond Momentum | 0.1957 (2.54) | 0.2209 (2.10) | ||
| R^2 | 0.1347 | 0.1382 | 0.1381 | 0.1403 |
The info contained herein doesn’t symbolize the outcomes of an precise funding portfolio however displays the hypothetical historic efficiency. Previous Efficiency is just not indicative of future outcomes
Mannequin 1 is a baseline Fama–French three-factor mannequin plus return on fairness (ROE), Low Volatility, and Momentum. Mannequin 2 expands on Mannequin 1 by including Extra Return Bond Momentum as an unbiased variable. Mannequin 3 makes use of Unfold Change Bond Momentum as the extra variable, whereas Mannequin 4 consists of each bond momentum indicators as explanatory variables.
The outputs from Mannequin 2 and Mannequin 3 point out that each bond momentum indicators can improve the explanatory energy of the baseline mannequin, or Mannequin 1. When included as a stand-alone variable, Unfold Change Bond Momentum reveals larger statistical significance than Extra Return Bond Return, and when each indicators are included, Unfold Change Bond Momentum higher predicts future inventory returns.
Conclusion
The extra extensively obtainable bond information turns into, the extra lecturers and practitioners will apply it to fairness sign analysis. Based mostly on our evaluation of the company bonds of US large-cap shares, a well-designed bond momentum sign that successfully captures market sentiment might help obtain important fairness alphas, and as our backtest and cross-sectional evaluation present, Unfold Change Bond Momentum is the simplest approach to harvest this momentum-spillover premium.
Additional Studying
Bittlingmayer, G., and Shane Moser. “What Does the Company Bond Market Know?” The Monetary Overview.
Chan, Louis Kc, Narasimhan Jegadeesh, and Josef Lakonishok. “Momentum Methods.” Journal of Finance.
Dor, Arik Ben, and Zhe Xu.Ought to Fairness Traders Care about Company Bond Costs? Utilizing Bond Costs to Assemble Fairness Momentum Methods.” The Journal of Portfolio Administration.
Gebhardt, William R., Soeren Hvidkjaer, and Bhaskaran Swaminathan. “Inventory and Bond Market Interplay: Does Momentum Spill Over?” Journal of Monetary Economics.
Israel, Ronen, Diogo Palhares, and Scott A. Richardson. “Widespread Elements in Company Bond Returns.” Journal of Funding Administration.
Gergana Jostova, Stanislava Nikolova, Alexander Philipov, and Christof W. Stahel. “Momentum in Company Bond Returns.” Overview of Monetary Research.
Lee, Jongsub, Andy Nranjo, and Sirmans. “CDS Momentum: Gradual-Transferring Credit score Scores and Cross-Market Spillovers.” The Overview of Asset Pricing Research.
Wiltermuth, Pleasure J. “Digital Buying and selling in U.S. Company Bonds Is Lastly Taking Off. However It’s Nonetheless Early Days, Says This Investor.” MarketWatch.
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